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Ath Bilbao vs Celta

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 13:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 47.2%

Draw: 32.3%

Celta win: 20.5%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 78.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.75

More corners: Ath Bilbao (59.9% home / 40.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 60.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 32%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (79.0% model probability) High

Corners Ath Bilbao (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.